The most valuable, practical books I’ve read, thankfully when first published: “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.”
Another gem was “The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger”
Published only four years apart, 2002 and 2006, respectively, these books were loaded with practical perspective for the long term.
Loved reading this! I wonder: if vertical-integrator ‘tricksters’ still chase the same scoreboard—capital, scale, TAM—are we really rewriting the saga or just swapping the cast?
What if the gods meet their doom not by being supplanted, but by the quiet reshaping of the heavens they command?
This one hit. Love the reminder that chaos isn’t just noise, it’s also raw material. So much of what looks like collapse is actually rearrangement. (Feels true in startups, M&A, even culture.) I appreciate the lens shift.
“The Box” was published on the 50th anniversary of the shipping container introduction. Between Houston and Newark, the shipping container was the shot heard around the world, transforming shipping, ports, railroads, retail and wholesale pricing structures, etc.
Reminds me of Kalki of Hindu mythology, final avatar of Vishnu who arrives on a white horse with a blazing sword at the end of Kali Yuga (our current age of darkness and conflict). Often simply portrayed as a destroyer of evil who restores dharma (justness). There is also a deeper interpretation, Kalki represents a necessary disruptive force whose arrival shatters calcified systems.
"Chaos" you describe isn't just random destruction, it's a necessary rupture that reveals weaknesses in established systems & creates space for new architectures to come out. In times of Chaos, in both business and society the true "ladder" isn't just about climbing to the top of existing structures, but about recognizing when it's time to build new ones entirely.
Trump has been a key catalyst in this, you may like reading this old piece comparing him to Kalki https://devdutt.com/has-kalki-arrived/ Whatever one's politics, his emergence represented a rupture in established political architectures that revealed underlying weaknesses and contradictions in systems many thought were stable and enduring
The German scientist who isolated and identified the first pheromone crushed an estimated 500,000 insects over a 20-year period with no guarantee of success. This led to the use of pheromones to protect endangered tree species, as well as a variety of organic defenses:
Leaf cutter ants have survived millions of years in the rain forest because they’ve adapted incredible sensitivity to subtle changes in humidity preceding rain. Empty leaf cutter ant trails are a precise weather forecast. Life-threatening chaos is predictable.
Why did Darwin spend the last 20 years of his life studying earthworms? Because he knew that all civilizations fail or succeed on a foundation of soil horizons.
“There are no guarantees.” But some things are predictable and last millions of years. It’s culture that fails. Culture = adaptability.
Intel first developed chip lithography. So, why TSMC? Because of a bad corporate executive promotional decision, an executive at Texas Instruments was recruited by the Taiwanese government, a government that saw the long-term opportunity in chip fabs. Corporations construct the foundations of failures with culture. TSLA likely will fail for a similar reason. Failure to design a better and safer Li-ion battery and choosing to base an autonomous driving system on cameras, not Li-DAR. TSLA is self-disrupting.
In rare cases, chaos creates perpetual long-term stability. The financial crisis panic prompted certain banks to issue preferred perpetual, non-callable stocks with generous fixed interest rates. Nothing lasts forever, but some things last a few lifetimes, which is good enough for long-term investors. Lack of liquidity? On which side of the equation?
"There ant no such thing as a free lunch". Ouch! Dad jokes and everything.
I enjoyed the piece but it didn't resonate as much as some of your others for me.
I guess I have always had the "when the paradigm changes those who grew thrived in the old order generally die" sort of approach. The pendulum swings. Vertical integrators will rise.
The most valuable, practical books I’ve read, thankfully when first published: “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.”
Another gem was “The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger”
Published only four years apart, 2002 and 2006, respectively, these books were loaded with practical perspective for the long term.
Both excellent reads!
Loved reading this! I wonder: if vertical-integrator ‘tricksters’ still chase the same scoreboard—capital, scale, TAM—are we really rewriting the saga or just swapping the cast?
What if the gods meet their doom not by being supplanted, but by the quiet reshaping of the heavens they command?
This was such an awesome read. Well done. I’m inclined to read the Trickster book…
It’s excellent! Highly recommend
Oh God. You are so good at writing.
Thanks Camilo!
The 'Chaos is a Ladder' analogy is deep on multiple levels.
Opportunity for those standing standing at the bottom and danger for those at the top.
Thank you for this insightful read.
This one hit. Love the reminder that chaos isn’t just noise, it’s also raw material. So much of what looks like collapse is actually rearrangement. (Feels true in startups, M&A, even culture.) I appreciate the lens shift.
happy to hear it!
Really excellent post packy
Thanks man!
I saved this article to read while was sitting down to eat lunch. Glad I did. Well done. Great read.
Glad you enjoyed!
As you know, Levinson wrote a follow-up book to “The Box.” I’m forever indebted to Perez and Levinson.
“The Box” was published on the 50th anniversary of the shipping container introduction. Between Houston and Newark, the shipping container was the shot heard around the world, transforming shipping, ports, railroads, retail and wholesale pricing structures, etc.
Reminds me of Kalki of Hindu mythology, final avatar of Vishnu who arrives on a white horse with a blazing sword at the end of Kali Yuga (our current age of darkness and conflict). Often simply portrayed as a destroyer of evil who restores dharma (justness). There is also a deeper interpretation, Kalki represents a necessary disruptive force whose arrival shatters calcified systems.
"Chaos" you describe isn't just random destruction, it's a necessary rupture that reveals weaknesses in established systems & creates space for new architectures to come out. In times of Chaos, in both business and society the true "ladder" isn't just about climbing to the top of existing structures, but about recognizing when it's time to build new ones entirely.
Trump has been a key catalyst in this, you may like reading this old piece comparing him to Kalki https://devdutt.com/has-kalki-arrived/ Whatever one's politics, his emergence represented a rupture in established political architectures that revealed underlying weaknesses and contradictions in systems many thought were stable and enduring
"Chaos is not a pit, chaos is a canvas."
so... didn't have enough time to write a short letter, eh? ;)
(great piece, but man that was quite a telliing!)
sometimes you gotta let it breathe
The German scientist who isolated and identified the first pheromone crushed an estimated 500,000 insects over a 20-year period with no guarantee of success. This led to the use of pheromones to protect endangered tree species, as well as a variety of organic defenses:
Leaf cutter ants have survived millions of years in the rain forest because they’ve adapted incredible sensitivity to subtle changes in humidity preceding rain. Empty leaf cutter ant trails are a precise weather forecast. Life-threatening chaos is predictable.
Why did Darwin spend the last 20 years of his life studying earthworms? Because he knew that all civilizations fail or succeed on a foundation of soil horizons.
“There are no guarantees.” But some things are predictable and last millions of years. It’s culture that fails. Culture = adaptability.
Intel first developed chip lithography. So, why TSMC? Because of a bad corporate executive promotional decision, an executive at Texas Instruments was recruited by the Taiwanese government, a government that saw the long-term opportunity in chip fabs. Corporations construct the foundations of failures with culture. TSLA likely will fail for a similar reason. Failure to design a better and safer Li-ion battery and choosing to base an autonomous driving system on cameras, not Li-DAR. TSLA is self-disrupting.
In rare cases, chaos creates perpetual long-term stability. The financial crisis panic prompted certain banks to issue preferred perpetual, non-callable stocks with generous fixed interest rates. Nothing lasts forever, but some things last a few lifetimes, which is good enough for long-term investors. Lack of liquidity? On which side of the equation?
First-mover advantage is fleeting.
"There ant no such thing as a free lunch". Ouch! Dad jokes and everything.
I enjoyed the piece but it didn't resonate as much as some of your others for me.
I guess I have always had the "when the paradigm changes those who grew thrived in the old order generally die" sort of approach. The pendulum swings. Vertical integrators will rise.