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Scott Tenenbaum's avatar

This was such an awesome read. Well done. I’m inclined to read the Trickster book…

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Packy McCormick's avatar

It’s excellent! Highly recommend

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John Van Gundy's avatar

The most valuable, practical books I’ve read, thankfully when first published: “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.”

Another gem was “The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger”

Published only four years apart, 2002 and 2006, respectively, these books were loaded with practical perspective for the long term.

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Packy McCormick's avatar

Both excellent reads!

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Daniel Tenreiro's avatar

Really excellent post packy

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Packy McCormick's avatar

Thanks man!

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Galina's avatar

Loved reading this! I wonder: if vertical-integrator ‘tricksters’ still chase the same scoreboard—capital, scale, TAM—are we really rewriting the saga or just swapping the cast?

What if the gods meet their doom not by being supplanted, but by the quiet reshaping of the heavens they command?

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Thiyagarajan M (Rajan)'s avatar

Reminds me of Kalki of Hindu mythology, final avatar of Vishnu who arrives on a white horse with a blazing sword at the end of Kali Yuga (our current age of darkness and conflict). Often simply portrayed as a destroyer of evil who restores dharma (justness). There is also a deeper interpretation, Kalki represents a necessary disruptive force whose arrival shatters calcified systems.

"Chaos" you describe isn't just random destruction, it's a necessary rupture that reveals weaknesses in established systems & creates space for new architectures to come out. In times of Chaos, in both business and society the true "ladder" isn't just about climbing to the top of existing structures, but about recognizing when it's time to build new ones entirely.

Trump has been a key catalyst in this, you may like reading this old piece comparing him to Kalki https://devdutt.com/has-kalki-arrived/ Whatever one's politics, his emergence represented a rupture in established political architectures that revealed underlying weaknesses and contradictions in systems many thought were stable and enduring

"Chaos is not a pit, chaos is a canvas."

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GravitasMSN's avatar

I saved this article to read while was sitting down to eat lunch. Glad I did. Well done. Great read.

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Packy McCormick's avatar

Glad you enjoyed!

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Dave McClure's avatar

so... didn't have enough time to write a short letter, eh? ;)

(great piece, but man that was quite a telliing!)

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Packy McCormick's avatar

sometimes you gotta let it breathe

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John Van Gundy's avatar

The German scientist who isolated and identified the first pheromone crushed an estimated 500,000 insects over a 20-year period with no guarantee of success. This led to the use of pheromones to protect endangered tree species, as well as a variety of organic defenses:

Leaf cutter ants have survived millions of years in the rain forest because they’ve adapted incredible sensitivity to subtle changes in humidity preceding rain. Empty leaf cutter ant trails are a precise weather forecast. Life-threatening chaos is predictable.

Why did Darwin spend the last 20 years of his life studying earthworms? Because he knew that all civilizations fail or succeed on a foundation of soil horizons.

“There are no guarantees.” But some things are predictable and last millions of years. It’s culture that fails. Culture = adaptability.

Intel first developed chip lithography. So, why TSMC? Because of a bad corporate executive promotional decision, an executive at Texas Instruments was recruited by the Taiwanese government, a government that saw the long-term opportunity in chip fabs. Corporations construct the foundations of failures with culture. TSLA likely will fail for a similar reason. Failure to design a better and safer Li-ion battery and choosing to base an autonomous driving system on cameras, not Li-DAR. TSLA is self-disrupting.

In rare cases, chaos creates perpetual long-term stability. The financial crisis panic prompted certain banks to issue preferred perpetual, non-callable stocks with generous fixed interest rates. Nothing lasts forever, but some things last a few lifetimes, which is good enough for long-term investors. Lack of liquidity? On which side of the equation?

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John Van Gundy's avatar

First-mover advantage is fleeting.

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John Van Gundy's avatar

As you know, Levinson wrote a follow-up book to “The Box.” I’m forever indebted to Perez and Levinson.

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John Van Gundy's avatar

“The Box” was published on the 50th anniversary of the shipping container introduction. Between Houston and Newark, the shipping container was the shot heard around the world, transforming shipping, ports, railroads, retail and wholesale pricing structures, etc.

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