I love your optimism, but I disagree that your hopefulness represents a contrarian view that is the inverse of popular sentiment in 1970. You wrote, "...just like things looked particularly rosy in 1970..." If things were looking rosy in 1970, perhaps it was because they weren't as bad as the previous two years. US casualties in Vietnam declined from 16,000 in 1968 to 6,000 in 1970, and race riots had declined. But 1970 was a tough year. Inflation notched up to 6% in 1970 and the decline of manufacturing jobs was well under way. After a 15% decline in 1969, the Dow advanced by less than 5% in 1970. It was the year of the Beatles break-up and the Kent State massacre...
The biggest obstacle in our way from real optimism is the corruption in our systems. We need to unite against it. All the rest is possible. It will make the chart to 1971 look like an ant hill next to MT Everest.
How do we stop the corruption in the systems? Decentralization. Transparency. New systems (like Balaji’s Network States).
In the midst of this acceleration, we also noted the first time in a generation where global poverty rates no longer declined, but stagnated.
These innovations are meaningful, but we also know they will inevitably benefit the wealthy world before it creates positive externalities for those not in view of these leaps forward.
BTW there is a place where we're starting to work with a more rational set of regulations, it's a direct flight from Dallas, Houston, Miami, Denver, Atlanta
I'm working there to further inspire this great acceleration by working with companies to innovate faster, e.g. in gene therapy, drone logistics, construction tech, jet packs etc.
I'd love to invite you and your readers there, the next chance is this one:
4 numbers to take away from this article: 10, 2, 3, 11
The US has given Ukraine more artillery shells than it produced in the past TEN years.
US monthly production of artillery shells prior to March 2022 was sufficient for TWO days of Ukraine consumption.
US monthly production of artillery shells, right now, is sufficient for THREE days of Ukraine consumption.
US monthly production of artillery shells will be sufficient for ELEVEN days of Ukraine consumption in 2025.
This is what the "resurgence" in American manufacturing, overall, is really going to be: an improvement, sure, but still far, far short of what actually is needed.
Nor am I particularly impressed with Big Bank CEO speeches: the decline of retail lending by the Big Banks in favor of say, lending for Big Companies to buy back their own stock or M & A or whatnot is a huge factor in the decline of small businesses contributing to the American economy. These same big banks should have been pruned back long ago but will fester as a parasite on the US economy much as the biggest oozing wound, US health care, continues to bleed Americans dry.
Much has been made this year about the dollar's loss of hegemony on the global stage, the rise of China to certain supremacy, and so on.
The more time that passes this year, the better things look, and you're not wrong to call out the LLM revolution as being center stage for optimism. I don't think anyone's confused that AI is driving the current bull run in stocks! We'll likely have a period of pessimism once the bubble bursts (akin to 2000), but productivity gains will still mount, just like the vision of the Internet everyone had back in 2000 has come to fruition; it just took a little while.
Realistically, I don't think it's gonna get better by next year. I think the interest rates have crippled the economy, layoffs in tech seem normal right now, and people are generally freaking out about finances . Seems like the public psychology needs some time to recoup before we get optimistic again.
This view of the future is missing a lot of even better things on the horizon. The video linked here explains other trends that will obsolete most of the disagreements above within a few years.
I love your optimism, but I disagree that your hopefulness represents a contrarian view that is the inverse of popular sentiment in 1970. You wrote, "...just like things looked particularly rosy in 1970..." If things were looking rosy in 1970, perhaps it was because they weren't as bad as the previous two years. US casualties in Vietnam declined from 16,000 in 1968 to 6,000 in 1970, and race riots had declined. But 1970 was a tough year. Inflation notched up to 6% in 1970 and the decline of manufacturing jobs was well under way. After a 15% decline in 1969, the Dow advanced by less than 5% in 1970. It was the year of the Beatles break-up and the Kent State massacre...
Reading this from Ukraine feels surreal. Hope you are right though
Good stuff.
The biggest obstacle in our way from real optimism is the corruption in our systems. We need to unite against it. All the rest is possible. It will make the chart to 1971 look like an ant hill next to MT Everest.
How do we stop the corruption in the systems? Decentralization. Transparency. New systems (like Balaji’s Network States).
We can unify and do this:
https://open.substack.com/pub/joshketry/p/the-people-need-manchurian-candidates?r=7oa9d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
In the midst of this acceleration, we also noted the first time in a generation where global poverty rates no longer declined, but stagnated.
These innovations are meaningful, but we also know they will inevitably benefit the wealthy world before it creates positive externalities for those not in view of these leaps forward.
Hi Packy & Readers,
Let's make it happen - the year is 2023!
BTW there is a place where we're starting to work with a more rational set of regulations, it's a direct flight from Dallas, Houston, Miami, Denver, Atlanta
I'm working there to further inspire this great acceleration by working with companies to innovate faster, e.g. in gene therapy, drone logistics, construction tech, jet packs etc.
I'd love to invite you and your readers there, the next chance is this one:
Sep 8-10: Contech 2023 - Architectural Visions & Material Superabundance: https://lu.ma/contech2023
Full event calendar here: https://lu.ma/infinita
An unbelievable firehouse of idiocy. Not to mention insulting Americans by pimping the employment of third world hacks.
Here's really what is going on:
Baseline fact: the United States of America spends more on military spending than the next 10 countries, combined.
https://www.ft.com/content/b2c89d88-3e71-4787-920f-5385236aa684
4 numbers to take away from this article: 10, 2, 3, 11
The US has given Ukraine more artillery shells than it produced in the past TEN years.
US monthly production of artillery shells prior to March 2022 was sufficient for TWO days of Ukraine consumption.
US monthly production of artillery shells, right now, is sufficient for THREE days of Ukraine consumption.
US monthly production of artillery shells will be sufficient for ELEVEN days of Ukraine consumption in 2025.
This is what the "resurgence" in American manufacturing, overall, is really going to be: an improvement, sure, but still far, far short of what actually is needed.
Nor am I particularly impressed with Big Bank CEO speeches: the decline of retail lending by the Big Banks in favor of say, lending for Big Companies to buy back their own stock or M & A or whatnot is a huge factor in the decline of small businesses contributing to the American economy. These same big banks should have been pruned back long ago but will fester as a parasite on the US economy much as the biggest oozing wound, US health care, continues to bleed Americans dry.
The *digital revolution* is interpreted as "50 years of stagnancy"? I don't think so.
Much has been made this year about the dollar's loss of hegemony on the global stage, the rise of China to certain supremacy, and so on.
The more time that passes this year, the better things look, and you're not wrong to call out the LLM revolution as being center stage for optimism. I don't think anyone's confused that AI is driving the current bull run in stocks! We'll likely have a period of pessimism once the bubble bursts (akin to 2000), but productivity gains will still mount, just like the vision of the Internet everyone had back in 2000 has come to fruition; it just took a little while.
This will take a lot less time.
Realistically, I don't think it's gonna get better by next year. I think the interest rates have crippled the economy, layoffs in tech seem normal right now, and people are generally freaking out about finances . Seems like the public psychology needs some time to recoup before we get optimistic again.
This view of the future is missing a lot of even better things on the horizon. The video linked here explains other trends that will obsolete most of the disagreements above within a few years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8
“Extremism on both ends…nope stopped reading after that.