A literal pack of nonsense because competing existential interests don't get bought off.
The Israel/Palestinian thing has been brewing for decades to millenia, depending on who you talk to.
Ultimately, conflation between sovereign and commercial interest.
Re: Techno-Optimist
Yet the latest talking piece - emphasis on talking - as opposed to doing. Where are the real world accomplishments that Venture Capitalism has promoted in the last 2 decades? Uber? WeWork? Facebook? At least Tesla makes actual cars; the rest of it is just pushing bits - both information and money.
I agree with you the conflict has been ongoing for millennia. There is hurt and resentment on both sides leading to fear anger hate and suffering. Creates a negative flywheel and vicious cycle.
One of the ways to break that cycle? Give people an opportunity to build a life worth living. When there are no economic opportunities you radicalize and galvanize the youth.
Religion and sovereign interests complicate the issue and this isn't a panacea, and as he mentions this isn't going to fix the issue entirely, but it is a good first step forward.
"Give people an opportunity to build a life worth living."
How can that be accomplished when the Israel/Palestinian dynamic most closely resembles American settlers vs. American Indians in the Manifest Destiny era?
Furthermore, is not your statement just a variant of "Learn To Code"?
The legitimate grievances on both Israeli and Palestinian side of this present situation is accompanied by strong and empowered interests on both sides but so what?
The situation is not going to get settled by pie-in-the-sky promises of prosperity based on "future opportunities". 50 years of UN mandated "Two State" solution has not been advanced even the slightest by Israel with US as power broker in the Middle East; what will happen now is a change of power broker and a very possibly existential crisis entirely self-induced by Israel.
What Hamas did is unacceptable and reprehensible, but the reality is that their actions have changed the trajectory of the Palestinian/Israeli struggle.
The change may well be from going out with a whimper to going out with a bang, but it has also introduced a real possibility of implementation of the Two State Solution after an agonizing Israeli strategic defeat which also kills many times more Palestinians.
This type of outcome is by far the most common way in which real world peace occurs.
I’m pointing out that economic solutions are often the best way to promote peace.
You are correct. The Good Friday Agreement was the end: the end of a horrific and turbulent time between Ireland and the UK.
Regardless of how it came about, when peace was sought by both sides a huge component of keeping that peace was through economic opportunity given to historically disenfranchised people (The Northern Irish)
I think we could do the same here. Period. Full stop.
Whether the US is still hegemon is pretty immaterial to argue about. Is the US in decline? Yes.
Has it declined and then boomed again? Yes, several times since 1947.
Hegemony is not a static concept and it’s baseless to claim that America is not the hegemon anymore simply because it’s in a bust cycle vs a boom.
First: the idea that the the Pax Americana is ending is a massive assumption.
Second: the Good Friday Agreement you mention in 1998 contained provisions for:
- The establishment of the International Fund for Ireland
- The creation of the North/South Ministerial Council, which provided a platform for economic cooperation between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
- The promotion of the development of infrastructure, including roads, airports, and ports etc
- A provision for funding education and training, which helped to develop the skills of the workforce and make Northern Ireland more attractive to businesses and foreign investment
These were a massive part of the peace process and were carefully devised to create a lasting peace which has persisted between Ireland and Great Britain, despite their long history of enmity, resentment and sectarian violence
As such, I’m advocating that such steps should be taken between Israel and Palestine to help to create a lasting peace
As I said before, when you have increased economic opportunity, the likelihood of war or unrest decreases.
Pax Americana has ended. Just look at the Middle East: The Saudis and Emiratis are no longer US allies. Not enemies, but clearly independent. South and Central America - Mexico and Colombia are also no longer US finger puppets. The US has withdrawn from Afghanistan after withdrawing in Vietnam. Most of the Eurasian continent is BRICS and/or Eurasian Economic Union or both. The US is still powerful - it is the 3rd largest nation by population and the 1st or 2nd nation by GDP, but it is not a hegemon by any stretch of the imagination.
As for the Good Friday Agreement - you keep trying to tout it as the beginning when it was, in fact, the end.
The UK had no problem suppressing Ireland overall and Northern Ireland in particular for centuries when the British Empire was still going.
The fall of the Empire after WW1 is what set the stage for Irish independence in 1921 much as the ongoing decline of the UK forced the UK to finally agree to peace in Northern Ireland.
You seem to believe that the terms of Good Friday were what caused peace to occur, when in fact it is the inability of the UK to maintain military control over Northern Ireland is what forced the UK into the discussions that ended with the Good Friday agreement.
I say this is false because there were literally 500 years when such "good terms" could have been negotiated - but the UK felt no need to do so until its inability to keep control, forced it to the negotiating table.
Among other things - the Northern Ireland situation started in the 1500s with a Norman invasion of Ireland; was followed by Cromwell's warfare in Northern Ireland against both Irish and English settlers after which 50,000 English settlers moved in; and persisted through the entirety of the rise and fall of the British Empire, the onset of the Age of Industrialization through to the post WW2 de-industrialization of the UK with the independence of Ireland from the UK in 1921; and only was resolved when the British government could no longer support the UK military support of the Northern Ireland Protestants any more not to mention Irish terrorism appearing in Britain proper.
The Good Friday agreement ending the Northern Ireland troubles was signed in 1998 - before the EU even existed.
So it is quite unclear what you are seeing as "greater opportunities" when it is quite clear that the Northern Ireland trajectory was dictated by the decline of the British empire.
And under this same understanding of reality: the belief of some Israelis (not all) that they can act with impunity with respect to the Palestinians because of support from the United States as global hegemon, is ending as is the brief era of Pax America and the nonsensical Fukuyama "end of history".
It is risible to assert that any business would want to invest in an area that is extremely poor, has no natural resources and does not even have a sovereign government.
Re: Venture Approach to Peace
A literal pack of nonsense because competing existential interests don't get bought off.
The Israel/Palestinian thing has been brewing for decades to millenia, depending on who you talk to.
Ultimately, conflation between sovereign and commercial interest.
Re: Techno-Optimist
Yet the latest talking piece - emphasis on talking - as opposed to doing. Where are the real world accomplishments that Venture Capitalism has promoted in the last 2 decades? Uber? WeWork? Facebook? At least Tesla makes actual cars; the rest of it is just pushing bits - both information and money.
Re: Nuclear power
LOL. Here is Statista's list of nuclear power plants under construction, by country, in the world: https://www.statista.com/statistics/513671/number-of-under-construction-nuclear-reactors-worldwide/
Notice who is not on the list: The United States.
Argentina has more plants under construction despite their economy literally being in ruins.
Re: Venture approach to peace.
I agree with you the conflict has been ongoing for millennia. There is hurt and resentment on both sides leading to fear anger hate and suffering. Creates a negative flywheel and vicious cycle.
One of the ways to break that cycle? Give people an opportunity to build a life worth living. When there are no economic opportunities you radicalize and galvanize the youth.
Religion and sovereign interests complicate the issue and this isn't a panacea, and as he mentions this isn't going to fix the issue entirely, but it is a good first step forward.
"Give people an opportunity to build a life worth living."
How can that be accomplished when the Israel/Palestinian dynamic most closely resembles American settlers vs. American Indians in the Manifest Destiny era?
Furthermore, is not your statement just a variant of "Learn To Code"?
The legitimate grievances on both Israeli and Palestinian side of this present situation is accompanied by strong and empowered interests on both sides but so what?
The situation is not going to get settled by pie-in-the-sky promises of prosperity based on "future opportunities". 50 years of UN mandated "Two State" solution has not been advanced even the slightest by Israel with US as power broker in the Middle East; what will happen now is a change of power broker and a very possibly existential crisis entirely self-induced by Israel.
What Hamas did is unacceptable and reprehensible, but the reality is that their actions have changed the trajectory of the Palestinian/Israeli struggle.
The change may well be from going out with a whimper to going out with a bang, but it has also introduced a real possibility of implementation of the Two State Solution after an agonizing Israeli strategic defeat which also kills many times more Palestinians.
This type of outcome is by far the most common way in which real world peace occurs.
I don’t know what exactly you’re trying to prove.
What is your point?
I’m pointing out that economic solutions are often the best way to promote peace.
You are correct. The Good Friday Agreement was the end: the end of a horrific and turbulent time between Ireland and the UK.
Regardless of how it came about, when peace was sought by both sides a huge component of keeping that peace was through economic opportunity given to historically disenfranchised people (The Northern Irish)
I think we could do the same here. Period. Full stop.
Whether the US is still hegemon is pretty immaterial to argue about. Is the US in decline? Yes.
Has it declined and then boomed again? Yes, several times since 1947.
Hegemony is not a static concept and it’s baseless to claim that America is not the hegemon anymore simply because it’s in a bust cycle vs a boom.
What I am proving is that the economic carrots only work after both sides are forced into negotiations.
To try and say that intractable conflicts are going to be solved by economic carrots is ludicrous.
As such, the economic carrots are not the way to peace - they are an outcome of peace.
*they preserve peace after both sides are willing to negotiate, yes
First: the idea that the the Pax Americana is ending is a massive assumption.
Second: the Good Friday Agreement you mention in 1998 contained provisions for:
- The establishment of the International Fund for Ireland
- The creation of the North/South Ministerial Council, which provided a platform for economic cooperation between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
- The promotion of the development of infrastructure, including roads, airports, and ports etc
- A provision for funding education and training, which helped to develop the skills of the workforce and make Northern Ireland more attractive to businesses and foreign investment
These were a massive part of the peace process and were carefully devised to create a lasting peace which has persisted between Ireland and Great Britain, despite their long history of enmity, resentment and sectarian violence
As such, I’m advocating that such steps should be taken between Israel and Palestine to help to create a lasting peace
As I said before, when you have increased economic opportunity, the likelihood of war or unrest decreases.
Pax Americana has ended. Just look at the Middle East: The Saudis and Emiratis are no longer US allies. Not enemies, but clearly independent. South and Central America - Mexico and Colombia are also no longer US finger puppets. The US has withdrawn from Afghanistan after withdrawing in Vietnam. Most of the Eurasian continent is BRICS and/or Eurasian Economic Union or both. The US is still powerful - it is the 3rd largest nation by population and the 1st or 2nd nation by GDP, but it is not a hegemon by any stretch of the imagination.
As for the Good Friday Agreement - you keep trying to tout it as the beginning when it was, in fact, the end.
The UK had no problem suppressing Ireland overall and Northern Ireland in particular for centuries when the British Empire was still going.
The fall of the Empire after WW1 is what set the stage for Irish independence in 1921 much as the ongoing decline of the UK forced the UK to finally agree to peace in Northern Ireland.
You seem to believe that the terms of Good Friday were what caused peace to occur, when in fact it is the inability of the UK to maintain military control over Northern Ireland is what forced the UK into the discussions that ended with the Good Friday agreement.
I say this is false because there were literally 500 years when such "good terms" could have been negotiated - but the UK felt no need to do so until its inability to keep control, forced it to the negotiating table.
I don’t agree with your framing of this as Manifest Destiny.
This more closely resembles the Troubles in Northern Ireland
And that was resolved through economic opportunity despite differences in religious ideology and a long history of enmity
Northern Ireland's conflict is exactly like Manifest Destiny; the Protestants there are the descendants of English settlers.
Your description of the settlement omits the years of armed conflict and terrorism that preceded it.
It is far from clear to me that the eventual settlement would have occurred without said bloodshed.
Regardless, that conflict was resolved due to increased economic opportunity and foreign mediation
I’m not arguing it’s going to solve everything
I’m arguing it’s an important step forward especially considering it worked in a similar environment
You clearly have a view - it is not one I share.
Among other things - the Northern Ireland situation started in the 1500s with a Norman invasion of Ireland; was followed by Cromwell's warfare in Northern Ireland against both Irish and English settlers after which 50,000 English settlers moved in; and persisted through the entirety of the rise and fall of the British Empire, the onset of the Age of Industrialization through to the post WW2 de-industrialization of the UK with the independence of Ireland from the UK in 1921; and only was resolved when the British government could no longer support the UK military support of the Northern Ireland Protestants any more not to mention Irish terrorism appearing in Britain proper.
The Good Friday agreement ending the Northern Ireland troubles was signed in 1998 - before the EU even existed.
So it is quite unclear what you are seeing as "greater opportunities" when it is quite clear that the Northern Ireland trajectory was dictated by the decline of the British empire.
And under this same understanding of reality: the belief of some Israelis (not all) that they can act with impunity with respect to the Palestinians because of support from the United States as global hegemon, is ending as is the brief era of Pax America and the nonsensical Fukuyama "end of history".
I also don’t agree that this is a variant of “learn to code”
When you make the area safe for foreign investment you get companies willing to do business there
Business employ a wide variety of people
It’s become obvious Gaza has no infrastructure or it’s own
Plenty of opportunity for tradesmen to build roads bridges water pipelines and electric grids and rebuild the city if the incentives are there
It is risible to assert that any business would want to invest in an area that is extremely poor, has no natural resources and does not even have a sovereign government.