I love the idea of a weekly dose of optimism, but I find it incongruous that this newsletter so often talks about military, war, etc.
That's the most depressing part of our country.
Instead of Americans focusing on (and investing resources into) solving root causes, our country continues to act in ways that make other countries likely to want to fight ours, so then the US feels the need to armor up.
Even worse, a lot of the military obsession isn't even *about* defense and is about *attacking* others for no good reason.
Congrats on getting to 151 issues, though. That's a huge achievement, and I love the concept. ❤️
We can develop an aircraft quickly. We did that with Bird of Prey very fast. It's harder to develop a system. Radar, electronics, maintenance packages, etc. A military aircraft is designed to be survivable, quickly repaired, maintained by 18 year old, and competitive for 40+ years. Change those requirements and planes will be developed quickly.
Hmm. I think i will unsubscribe. As long as birth rates are far below 2.1 there is actually no reason to be optimistic about anything as there is no future. Especially as birth rates among the most intelligent peoples/ethnic groups is the lowest.
The coming 30 years will be the last few decades of limited innovation before it all ends.
Birth rates below 2.1, in and of themselves, do not necessarily lead to "no future". You also have to posit that rates never increase at some later date. That seems unlikely. It seems more likely that we will find a way to continue as a species, even if we must find a new way to produce our replacements.
There is also the question of what we consider to be the future. You calculate that we have 30 more years of innovation. Unless humanity ends with the snap of the fingers after 30 years, that implies lots of future. Meanwhile, the earth's population is projected to continue growing until 2050. At a birthrate of 1.5, how many generations will it take to reduce a population of 10 Billion to zero? Gemini reports it will take 50-60 generations to decline to 5 Billion.
And it is just silly to suggest that there will be no progress after 30 years. AI seems to be delivering on the promise that each person will be substantially more productive as we learn to use and improve the technology. Nor does innovation stop when the planet population falls to an arbitrary number. We passed the 1 Billion mark in 1804. There were lots of smart people before then.
LOVE #3... Chai-2... groundbreaking stuff... thanks for sharing
I love the idea of a weekly dose of optimism, but I find it incongruous that this newsletter so often talks about military, war, etc.
That's the most depressing part of our country.
Instead of Americans focusing on (and investing resources into) solving root causes, our country continues to act in ways that make other countries likely to want to fight ours, so then the US feels the need to armor up.
Even worse, a lot of the military obsession isn't even *about* defense and is about *attacking* others for no good reason.
Congrats on getting to 151 issues, though. That's a huge achievement, and I love the concept. ❤️
We can develop an aircraft quickly. We did that with Bird of Prey very fast. It's harder to develop a system. Radar, electronics, maintenance packages, etc. A military aircraft is designed to be survivable, quickly repaired, maintained by 18 year old, and competitive for 40+ years. Change those requirements and planes will be developed quickly.
Hmm. I think i will unsubscribe. As long as birth rates are far below 2.1 there is actually no reason to be optimistic about anything as there is no future. Especially as birth rates among the most intelligent peoples/ethnic groups is the lowest.
The coming 30 years will be the last few decades of limited innovation before it all ends.
Birth rates below 2.1, in and of themselves, do not necessarily lead to "no future". You also have to posit that rates never increase at some later date. That seems unlikely. It seems more likely that we will find a way to continue as a species, even if we must find a new way to produce our replacements.
There is also the question of what we consider to be the future. You calculate that we have 30 more years of innovation. Unless humanity ends with the snap of the fingers after 30 years, that implies lots of future. Meanwhile, the earth's population is projected to continue growing until 2050. At a birthrate of 1.5, how many generations will it take to reduce a population of 10 Billion to zero? Gemini reports it will take 50-60 generations to decline to 5 Billion.
And it is just silly to suggest that there will be no progress after 30 years. AI seems to be delivering on the promise that each person will be substantially more productive as we learn to use and improve the technology. Nor does innovation stop when the planet population falls to an arbitrary number. We passed the 1 Billion mark in 1804. There were lots of smart people before then.
“I support the current doomer thing.”