I enjoyed Dalio's book as well, but you should also read (in case you haven't) Peter Zeehan's "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" where he lays out a quant case for China's decline and America's continued leadership. It's fascinating to see these two thinkers come to opposite conclusions, both based on relatively unbiased numbers.
The US economy has gotten worse over these past 30 years, not better, except in terms of information-technology and the top 20%
"Make america great again". Most pessimistic slogan a president has ever run with, and he won with it.
What was great about the USA that is not great anymore? What does 50% of the population intuit that we don't? The virtual class doesn't seem to have an understanding what is going on the real world. We are stepping over homeless encampments to get to our FAANGM job while the infrastructure is falling apart and there is not industrial base to have a functioning economy (unless you can trade with China). To fix these things our political class steps over homeless people to send money to fund wars abroad.
the fact that the line keeps going up in my investments doesn't mean that the economy is doing well, actually. It's doing well for people who own these assets, which is a tiny part of the US.
We've recently had 10 states say they would support Texas militarily in a conflict with the federal government. I don't think the virtual classes are understanding what is being felt for millions of americans. And you only need 2% of americans to organize themselves to have an all-consuming civil war.
Once America elects next Democratic president, it can compete then with China on who is the most socialist (or less capitalist for that matter) country. So much for the capitalistic optimism that Packy expresses here.
"Harris's economic agenda is estimated to increase the federal deficit by $1.7 trillion over a decade."
So much for the US debt reduction.
And once more insanities come into life, like taxing unrealised gains, so much more for for competitiveness of US capitalist companies and minds.
Packy, your newsletter never fails to inspire! The focus on innovative solutions and the optimistic outlook on the future of technology and the economy left me feeling excited about what’s to come.
I am a CALS of my 68 year old Husband who suffered from muscle tiredness brought on by chronic fatigue in its early stages. Neurologists first had difficulty diagnosing it until multiple examinations indicated ALS, for which there was no known cure other than the prescription of riluzole medications, vitamins, and therapies. More advancements in breathing difficulties, difficulty pronouncing words, and difficulties eating occurred before we made the decision to try different medications, which significantly enhanced his condition. He received treatment for ALS/MND at vinehealthcentre. com from the U.S approximately four months ago; since then, he has stopped using a feeding tube, sleeps well, works out frequently, and has become very active. Although it doesn't cure his ALS, it has improved his quality of life. .
I would be against optimism with respect to the USA. As Ray Dalio describes, the USA has entered the cycle of 'Decline' that great powers go through, and debt is the most important part of that equation to see it happening. Here are some more points:
1. National average IQ of the USA is dropping fast. From 100 to around 96 now and continuing to drop
2. It's multinationals will get outcompeted by Chinese multinationals everywhere. E.g., all of USA's car manufacturers are getting hammered in global markets and the chinese market right now. That's just one example. Chinese national average IQ is 104, and stable.
3. The USA has no genuine industrial supply chain anymore. China's manufacturing output is 11 trillion, the same as like US + EU combined. And, more importantly, China has monopolies on key parts of the supply chain everywhere.
4. Because the industrial base has been hollowed out, innovation in hard-tech will be far away. You just won't have people intimatitely familair with industrial processes in the USA to the degree that you'll have in China, and be able to innovate on it. See BYD showing the door to Tesla, and Elon Musk is the last great industrialist of the USA. And he's hated by everyone. Which says a lot about where we are as a culture.
5. Stagnation. I see no growth the last 30 years outside of information-technology. Which concentrated the economy in the following sectors: information-technology, banking, and law. None of that is "real" and relied on China's industrial base, which will now start to compete directly with the USA, instead of win-win, it will become win-lose, with the USA losing.
6. AI could potentially improve productivity for office work. But, again, the feedback loop from AI towards innovation in the world of atoms is one that I am not seeing yet, to the degree that we need to solve the USA's problem
7. the USA has around 250 trillion in unfunded liabilities with it's pension scheme
8. And a lot of debt.
9. A trade deficit with China that is about a trillion, and only growing as nobody can compete with Chinese manufacturing on cost and quality.
10. A weakening european union. Due to the war in Russia, germany's economy will deindustrialize and enter recession the next decade.
11. To come back to manufacturing. The USA can't keep it's navy afloat anymore, the people who have all these skills are retiring, and we aren't training new people, we sent the new generations to college to do white collar work.
12. Aging demographics (but that's the same everywhere in the world)
13. It's national security apparatus is creating wars everywhere (soon also one in Iran), which will cost money, which will lead to money printing.. etc.
14. An unstable political system
The show won't go on, each of the following two events will trigger a crisis in the USA markets and economy:
1. foreign governments dumping US debt because the USA is printing too much money.
2. When 401k outflows > inflows (and SP500 crashing as a result)
Love your optimism, but we need magic. Will we get it? we'll see :-) I'm moving to a safer place over the coming years either way.
I enjoyed Dalio's book as well, but you should also read (in case you haven't) Peter Zeehan's "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" where he lays out a quant case for China's decline and America's continued leadership. It's fascinating to see these two thinkers come to opposite conclusions, both based on relatively unbiased numbers.
The US economy has gotten worse over these past 30 years, not better, except in terms of information-technology and the top 20%
"Make america great again". Most pessimistic slogan a president has ever run with, and he won with it.
What was great about the USA that is not great anymore? What does 50% of the population intuit that we don't? The virtual class doesn't seem to have an understanding what is going on the real world. We are stepping over homeless encampments to get to our FAANGM job while the infrastructure is falling apart and there is not industrial base to have a functioning economy (unless you can trade with China). To fix these things our political class steps over homeless people to send money to fund wars abroad.
the fact that the line keeps going up in my investments doesn't mean that the economy is doing well, actually. It's doing well for people who own these assets, which is a tiny part of the US.
We've recently had 10 states say they would support Texas militarily in a conflict with the federal government. I don't think the virtual classes are understanding what is being felt for millions of americans. And you only need 2% of americans to organize themselves to have an all-consuming civil war.
Once America elects next Democratic president, it can compete then with China on who is the most socialist (or less capitalist for that matter) country. So much for the capitalistic optimism that Packy expresses here.
"Harris's economic agenda is estimated to increase the federal deficit by $1.7 trillion over a decade."
So much for the US debt reduction.
And once more insanities come into life, like taxing unrealised gains, so much more for for competitiveness of US capitalist companies and minds.
Packy, your newsletter never fails to inspire! The focus on innovative solutions and the optimistic outlook on the future of technology and the economy left me feeling excited about what’s to come.
I am a CALS of my 68 year old Husband who suffered from muscle tiredness brought on by chronic fatigue in its early stages. Neurologists first had difficulty diagnosing it until multiple examinations indicated ALS, for which there was no known cure other than the prescription of riluzole medications, vitamins, and therapies. More advancements in breathing difficulties, difficulty pronouncing words, and difficulties eating occurred before we made the decision to try different medications, which significantly enhanced his condition. He received treatment for ALS/MND at vinehealthcentre. com from the U.S approximately four months ago; since then, he has stopped using a feeding tube, sleeps well, works out frequently, and has become very active. Although it doesn't cure his ALS, it has improved his quality of life. .
Congrats to Sun Cable 👏
It’ll be maybe a decade to see the vision of the cable connected to Singapore complete.
Curious to see if anyone else completes other multinational projects (ie Morocco -> UK) in that time before them - Australia is big! 🇦🇺
I would be against optimism with respect to the USA. As Ray Dalio describes, the USA has entered the cycle of 'Decline' that great powers go through, and debt is the most important part of that equation to see it happening. Here are some more points:
1. National average IQ of the USA is dropping fast. From 100 to around 96 now and continuing to drop
2. It's multinationals will get outcompeted by Chinese multinationals everywhere. E.g., all of USA's car manufacturers are getting hammered in global markets and the chinese market right now. That's just one example. Chinese national average IQ is 104, and stable.
3. The USA has no genuine industrial supply chain anymore. China's manufacturing output is 11 trillion, the same as like US + EU combined. And, more importantly, China has monopolies on key parts of the supply chain everywhere.
4. Because the industrial base has been hollowed out, innovation in hard-tech will be far away. You just won't have people intimatitely familair with industrial processes in the USA to the degree that you'll have in China, and be able to innovate on it. See BYD showing the door to Tesla, and Elon Musk is the last great industrialist of the USA. And he's hated by everyone. Which says a lot about where we are as a culture.
5. Stagnation. I see no growth the last 30 years outside of information-technology. Which concentrated the economy in the following sectors: information-technology, banking, and law. None of that is "real" and relied on China's industrial base, which will now start to compete directly with the USA, instead of win-win, it will become win-lose, with the USA losing.
6. AI could potentially improve productivity for office work. But, again, the feedback loop from AI towards innovation in the world of atoms is one that I am not seeing yet, to the degree that we need to solve the USA's problem
7. the USA has around 250 trillion in unfunded liabilities with it's pension scheme
8. And a lot of debt.
9. A trade deficit with China that is about a trillion, and only growing as nobody can compete with Chinese manufacturing on cost and quality.
10. A weakening european union. Due to the war in Russia, germany's economy will deindustrialize and enter recession the next decade.
11. To come back to manufacturing. The USA can't keep it's navy afloat anymore, the people who have all these skills are retiring, and we aren't training new people, we sent the new generations to college to do white collar work.
12. Aging demographics (but that's the same everywhere in the world)
13. It's national security apparatus is creating wars everywhere (soon also one in Iran), which will cost money, which will lead to money printing.. etc.
14. An unstable political system
The show won't go on, each of the following two events will trigger a crisis in the USA markets and economy:
1. foreign governments dumping US debt because the USA is printing too much money.
2. When 401k outflows > inflows (and SP500 crashing as a result)
Love your optimism, but we need magic. Will we get it? we'll see :-) I'm moving to a safer place over the coming years either way.