Building Rich Worlds Around Bold Startups, a Riff on Prophecy Markets
This article left me with a lot to think about. Thank you for the rabbit hole I am about to go down!
Thanks a lot for your beautiful essay.
I was very enthusiastic so I created my own predictions with NFTs :
- 2026: Work on the ITER experimental fusion nuclear plant is complete
- 2031: First rocket landing with human astronauts on Planet Mars with Space X
- 2036: First extraterrestrial communication in China
Now, finger crossed.
Building a startup is a formidable task, and it's not for the faint of heart. The journey is filled with obstacles, challenges, and uncertainties that can test one's resolve. But it is the very difficulty of these problems that makes the pursuit of building a startup so compelling.
The hard problems of startups are like puzzles waiting to be solved, and they offer an opportunity for growth, both personal and professional. The rewards for solving these challenges are not just monetary, but also the satisfaction that comes from creating something that makes a difference in the world. It's these challenges that shape the entrepreneurs of tomorrow, forging them into the visionaries of the future. Building a startup certainly isn't life's 'easy route', but it is a journey well worth taking. For those who are willing to embrace the difficulties and persevere, the rewards are immeasurable and the impact they can make on the world will be lasting. The problems we are solving for today shape the world of tomorrow.
As always — well done Packy.
This is utter bollocks: selling merchandise before a potential cloud resolves.
This is exactly like selling <insert name> 2023 World Series Champions jerseys, today.
Which is to say, a ridiculous enterprise that no one with half a brain is going to bother buying.
Even the future potential bit is nonsense. Why not just start a betting market instead with 100000 to 1 odds and bet $1 (or whatever) on said startup?
Clearly an example of a solution looking for a problem.
I love the idea of a group of people organized around a common cause, which creates content that advances that cause.
I don't like the NFT angle. :)
Interesting concept, but I'm struggling with the absence of meaningful providence of these "prophecies". The business memorabilia examples you gave have providence because they originate either from the company themselves directly (e.g. Apple), or from a venerated third party (e.g. TIME magazine) that gives weight to the significance of the artifact. I'm not sure an NFT minted by any random Joe would carry the same meaning, regardless of the accuracy of their prediction.
Beautiful piece. Thanks Packy
I do think however that there’s a major gap in this logic. If a nobody makes a bet and mint it, no matter how true or beautiful the art is, then even when the bet proves true it’ll still be a nobody’s bet. I wonder whether online creators who’ve reached critical mass success discount the value of their distribution channels and brands. For the logic to work the creator must market their bet throughout the lifetime of the bet. Or at least maintain a following around it. There’s an authenticity to an original Apple tshirt or a signed 1st edition. But making a bet while having zero skin in the game seems irrelevant. Therefore, it is not the NFT or the bet that creates the value, but all the following necessary actions the better will have to take. And then, at least from my pov they might as well go work for the company and earn some direct comp doing so