Or, why progress curves in AI and web3 look different
Insightful as always. Seems reminiscent of the distinction between P-type (product ~ science) and S-type (strategy ~ social) “loonshots” https://www.ronimmink.com/innovation-managing-solid-fluid-superfluid-s-p-type-loonshots/
Awesome post. I love analogies so I'll go ahead and say this post reminded me of the book Lifespan by David Sinclair. In the book, Sinclair discusses how to live longer. A core tenant of his thesis is that we must put our bodies under stress via things like exercise and fasting. Biologically speaking, the reason for this is that when our bodies are stressed our cells trade reproduction for repair. If we are constantly indulging in food and never exercising, our cells will reproduce constantly, but in doing so forego their responsibilities of monitoring and fighting disease. However, when we fast, the cells "buckle down" and focus on repairing and maintaining themselves so that they can survive the uncertain times that our body has signaled are coming. I think the parallels are clear, but the point is that in biology and in business, periods of stress ultimately breed longevity and success because the require focus on what really matters.
Great observation and graphic on two types of "experimentation". I do think which curve a particular "experiment" falls under is more correlated with the goal or problem space as opposed to the solution space. In other words, goals or problems that are intrinsically tied to people behavior or perception will require social "experimentation" (even if the solution itself is built using scientific experimentation). Goals or problems that can be quantified as successful independent of subjective perception can be accomplished purely with scientific "experimentation". Ultimately, any product used by people will only succeed when people want them. Scientific experimentation will only take you so far if you are ultimately selling to people.
I think this mirrors your work harder vs smarter article. Science experiments unlock ways we can work harder, social experiments are about organising ourselves in ways to work smarter