Awesome analysis, but I just wanted to pointed out that “that request to track all activity across other apps and websites” will probably not be a source of concern, as it will gradually be requested by most apps due to Apple’s recent privacy updates (App Tracking Transparency).
Packy, revisiting this piece in 2025, it remains the definitive history of Shein's rise. But from my vantage point deep in the supply chain, I can see one 'Hidden Gear' in the flywheel that the tech analysis missed back then: The $800 De Minimis Loophole.
You brilliantly described the software (C2M), but the hardware of Shein's success was built on 'Regulatory Arbitrage.'
By breaking bulk freight into millions of direct-to-consumer parcels under $800, Shein didn't just innovate on speed; they effectively removed all 'damping' from the system—bypassing tariffs, warehousing costs, and scrutiny.
Operationally, it’s not just e-commerce; it’s a 'DDoS Attack' on Western Customs.
While you called it 'Real-Time Retail,' I call it the '$800 Trojan Horse.' It’s the physical pipeline that allowed China’s 'Deflationary Black Hole' to drain directly into US households.
I recently published a retrospective autopsy on how this specific mechanism—not just the algorithms—powered the giant:
Hi, Wondering if you could share where you get all your statistics from? I've only just discovered your blog so please accept my lack of knowledge about your background and how you do what you do. I'm super keen to find out verified statistics of Shein. At the same time I'm very cautious of sourcing these things with search.
A spectacular and exhaustive analysis! There is little left to add. Perhaps it is worth emphasizing the importance of being prepared to seize the opportunities that, in this case, arose from the pandemic and the subsequent lockdown.
Sorry, but Shein has been known (by many women who shop) for ages. This is one of the key reasons I believe it was slow to be recognised and analysed...The same reason that women tech founders attract only 2% of the private equity/venture money out there. We women are half the world but still too much of an afterthought in business and life.... The irony of Shein is its success is built on top of hugely appalling working conditions for the women making the $3 bikinis!
That's one heck of an analysis. Super stuff.
Awesome analysis, but I just wanted to pointed out that “that request to track all activity across other apps and websites” will probably not be a source of concern, as it will gradually be requested by most apps due to Apple’s recent privacy updates (App Tracking Transparency).
Great article, thank you. Is it possible to get exposure somehow to SheIn and TikTok for a small-fry retail investor?
This is an amazing read Packy and Brennan. Shine is hiding in plain sight. Literally. Thank you for being thorough. 感谢你们两个的努力！
Wow! Thanks for that. Definitely not boring. Excellent read and eye opening stuff!
What about shipping ? What is the point being fashion responsive if shipping stay slow ? Then the thesis doesn't hold.
Good point Hervé. Fast fashion but only for the seller to sell faster.
That might be the kink that makes another Chinese e-commerce giant?
The best piece yet! Super super insightful, and an awesome find of a company nobody's really talking about that they should be
Packy, revisiting this piece in 2025, it remains the definitive history of Shein's rise. But from my vantage point deep in the supply chain, I can see one 'Hidden Gear' in the flywheel that the tech analysis missed back then: The $800 De Minimis Loophole.
You brilliantly described the software (C2M), but the hardware of Shein's success was built on 'Regulatory Arbitrage.'
By breaking bulk freight into millions of direct-to-consumer parcels under $800, Shein didn't just innovate on speed; they effectively removed all 'damping' from the system—bypassing tariffs, warehousing costs, and scrutiny.
Operationally, it’s not just e-commerce; it’s a 'DDoS Attack' on Western Customs.
While you called it 'Real-Time Retail,' I call it the '$800 Trojan Horse.' It’s the physical pipeline that allowed China’s 'Deflationary Black Hole' to drain directly into US households.
I recently published a retrospective autopsy on how this specific mechanism—not just the algorithms—powered the giant:
[ 'The $800 Trojan Horse' article] https://chinarbitrageur.substack.com/p/the-800-trojan-horse-how-algorithms?r=71ctq6
Very good post. I know its from 2021, but can I translate part of this article into Spanish with links to you and a description of your newsletter?
Hi, Wondering if you could share where you get all your statistics from? I've only just discovered your blog so please accept my lack of knowledge about your background and how you do what you do. I'm super keen to find out verified statistics of Shein. At the same time I'm very cautious of sourcing these things with search.
Really impressive with this blog, hope you have more deepth
A spectacular and exhaustive analysis! There is little left to add. Perhaps it is worth emphasizing the importance of being prepared to seize the opportunities that, in this case, arose from the pandemic and the subsequent lockdown.
https://absolutcount.substack.com/p/tiktok-the-queenmaker
Loved reading this. Keep it up
fyi your usereap feedback is not working.
Sorry, but Shein has been known (by many women who shop) for ages. This is one of the key reasons I believe it was slow to be recognised and analysed...The same reason that women tech founders attract only 2% of the private equity/venture money out there. We women are half the world but still too much of an afterthought in business and life.... The irony of Shein is its success is built on top of hugely appalling working conditions for the women making the $3 bikinis!
What's is Chris Xu's proper Chinese name?