How a bad product experience uncovered one of 2020's most overvalued stocks
Packy - you hooked me with the e-mail and didn't let me down for the rest of it. This was awesome. Makes me want to take a position...
On the other hand I know how terrible SFDC's product is from a UI/UX POV and it's done so well... #struggle
Thanks for writing.
if you've ever used coupa it is remarkably even clunkier and glitchier than bill.com, and it has a $25b market cap
the core rev growth >50% is somewhat better than the unimpressive 20+% total rev growth (though still hard to say that it justifies the nosebleed multiple)
i am remembering reading somewhere (maybe one of the earnings calls or analyst events but don't take my word for it) - they had 20% churn mostly customers going out of business, so the 120% NRR might imply a pretty substantial expansion rate (150%?) of customers they retained - so they could be leveraged to the upside in a small business recovery
Researching bill.com I find a stock analysis rating by CFRA as a strong sell. At the same time I read that the Stock Analyst evaluation is at "overweight". Finding this huge difference of analysis, you know something has to give! Enjoyed your article Packy.
Hey Packy, not sure if you saw this but Bill.com started storing user funds in its own account and people are pissed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30997123
A year later, and the market cap for bill.com is more than ~25B. Packy, would you do a follow up on this essay?
It's justifiable, the bill.com domain is worth $6B, and BILL ticker is worth $4B, there you have it.
In all seriousness - interesting parallel to SFDC. SFDC performs well because it dominates the CRM market and there is no great alternative, but BILL is just a small player and there are plenty of alternatives.
Thanks Packy for the note! Have you looked at publicly listed Billtrust? https://investors.billtrust.com/. They are 100% dedicated to AR. Also take a look at Melio. BVP is an investor. Quickbooks recently replaced bill.com for Melio as a default partner.
Amazing piece, thank you. IT IS very offensive how insane the valuation and bad the product is with Bill.com. No innovation or joy in the product, low growth potential, absolutely insane lol
Packy thank you very much. Did you write something about Fastly?
Man, I feel like you made a bull case for bill.com - the distribution moat is insanely strong.. Have you tried to do deals with financial institutions? It seems insanely hard