Weekly Dose of Optimism #125

Commonwealth Fusion, Off-grid Solar Microgrids, HORNET, Astranis , Technology Brothers

Hi friends 👋,

Happy Friday and welcome back to our 125th Weekly Dose of Optimism. It’s our favorite time of the year — Christmas cheer pairs quite nicely with optimism. We’ll be back one more time next week for a more comprehensive look-back on one of the most productive years in history, but for now, just let these five stories ease you into your holiday weekend.

Let’s get to it.

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(1) Fusion Leader Commonwealth Plans First-Ever Commercial Plant

Will Wade for Bloomberg

Commonwealth Fusion Systems LLC, a leader in the race to develop fusion power, has leased a site for its first commercial-scale power plant in a sign of confidence that it can build a system harnessing the energy of the stars.

Commonwealth said this would mark the world’s first grid-scale commercial plant for the power source, though it’s still several years away. The company plans to build the system near a Dominion Energy Inc. natural gas plant in Virginia, about 15 miles (24 kilometers) south of Richmond, according to a statement Tuesday.

Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), the fusion energy company backed by Bill Gates and others, is taking practical steps towards making fusion energy a main source of energy on the grid. The company just leased a site in Virginia for its first commercial-scale fusion power plant, aiming to create the world’s first grid-connected system using fusion energy by the early 2030s.

As a reminder, fusion is not yet ready for commercialization — the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory just achieved Q>1 for the first time in 2022. This demonstrated the feasibility of net energy gain in fusion, a critical step toward making fusion a viable energy source, but the laser inertial confinement fusion method NIF employs — shooting 192 laser beams at a small capsule containing D-T fuel — isn’t really meant to scale up to energy production.

CFS, on the other hand, is pursuing magnetic confinement fusion using high temperature superconducting magnets that allow for a much more compact reactor.

For a breakdown on fusion reactors and metrics, check out our Deep Dive on Fuse:

CFS is currently building a demonstration device in Massachusetts, Sparc, which it expects to achieve net energy gain by 2027. Once that is accomplished, the company plans to scale up to the Q>x required to produce electricity profitably, and use the Virginia site to offer grid connectivity and proximity to high-demand customers, such as data centers and industrial users.

Fusion: maybe less than 10 years away.

(2) Fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough

Kyle Baranko (Paces), Duncan Campbell (Scale Microgrids), Zeke Hausfather (Stripe),
James McWalter (Paces), Nan Ransohoff (Stripe)

Off-grid solar microgrids can meet the massive, immediate energy demands of AI datacenters. They offer a faster, scalable, and cost-effective alternative to traditional grid expansions or natural gas plants. In the U.S. Southwest, there's potential for over 1,200 GW of datacenter capacity using this approach.

Even if Commonwealth isn’t successful, there are alternative sources of clean abundant energy to fuel AI data centers’ energy needs. A team of researchers investigated how solar could help satiate the ever-growing energy appetites of the hyperscalers. Here’s what they came up with.

Off-grid solar microgrids offer a scalable and cost-effective alternative to traditional grid expansions or fossil fuel plants. An off-grid solar microgrid is a self-contained energy system that uses solar panels and battery storage to generate and supply electricity independently of the main power grid.

By leveraging abundant solar resources, particularly in the U.S. Southwest, this approach could unlock over 1,200 GW of datacenter capacity. Right now, these data centers are largely reliant on fossil fuels, but over time, the combination of solar, nuclear, and perhaps even fusion will cleanly, affordably, and reliably step in to fill the needs of the hyperscaler’s AI ambitions.

(3) Determining structures of RNA conformers using AFM and deep neural networks

Degenhardt et al in Nature

Here we report holistic RNA structure determination method using atomic force microscopy, unsupervised machine learning and deep neural networks (HORNET), a novel method for determining three-dimensional topological structures of RNA using atomic force microscopy images of individual molecules in solution. Owing to the high signal-to-noise ratio of atomic force microscopy, this method is ideal for capturing structures of large RNA molecules in distinct conformations. In addition to six benchmark cases, we demonstrate the utility of HORNET by determining multiple heterogeneous structures of RNase P RNA and the HIV-1 Rev response element (RRE) RNA.

A research team from the National Cancer Institute and the NIH introduced HORNET, a groundbreaking method that uses atomic force microscopy (AFM) and AI to map the 3D structures of RNA molecules. Unlike traditional techniques, HORNET excels at analyzing RNA molecules that constantly shift shape, capturing detailed images of their flexible structures.

HORNET uses AFM to capture high-resolution images of individual RNA molecules in solution, then applies AI to sort potential structures and a neural network to evaluate their accuracy. This process produces detailed 3D models of RNA conformations, even for highly dynamic and heterogeneous molecules.

HORNET helps scientists see the 3D shapes of RNA, which is like the tiny instructions inside our cells. More simply, HORNET makes studing RNA easier — which could lead to better treatments and medicines, for diseases like cancer and HIV.

(4) Astranis Satellite Launch

From Astranis

Astranis just launched (or is about to launch…depending on when you read this) four MicroGEO communications satellites aboard a dedicated SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket into a supersync Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). The satellites, serving customers across three countries, include NuView Alpha and Bravo for U.S.-based Anuvu, AGILA for the Philippines, and UtilitySat, a multi-mission satellite initially supporting APCO over Mexico. This marks the first time a single manufacturer has launched four satellites to GEO on one mission.

We’ve covered Astranis a couple of times, but as a reminder it’s a satellite internet company focused on providing affordable, reliable broadband to underserved regions (such as the Phillipines) by deploying small, geostationary satellites. Unlike large-scale satellite constellations like SpaceX's Starlink, Astranis uses compact, cost-efficient satellites stationed in geostationary orbit, enabling focused coverage over specific areas with a fraction of the cost and infrastructure. This targeted approach allows for quicker deployment and tailored service to regions with limited connectivity.

We’re rooting for team Astranis — not only because our absolute BOYS Christian Keil and Jason Carman work(ed) there — but because if they’re successful it means millions of more people around the world will have access to fast, reliable, and affordable internet.

(5) Technology Brothers

From one set of technology brothers to another…well done with this one, gentlemen!

Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen (and been a part of) the rise of techno-optimistic media. Rather than vilifying, this new media covers and celebrates the work of technologists and entrepreneurs. Think folks like Ashlee Vance at Bloomberg, Ben and David at Acquired, Mike Solana and the Pirate Wires crew, the aforementioned Jason Carman and Christian Keil, Anna-Sofia Lesiv, and more.

The cool new kids on this particular block are the Technology Brothers, Jordi Hays and John Coogan. In a very short amount of time, they’ve built an extremely relevant show (at least in our little corner of the internet) and what they’ve deemed “the most profitable podcast in the world” (we’re still fact checking this one.)

Whoever said we didn’t need a more rich white guys with a tech podcast certainly did not foresee what Jordi and John were capable of.

More broadly, Jordi and John exemplify of one life’s axioms: Most Fun Wins. These guys are clearly just having more fun than anyone else out there in tech media right now, and it shows. We think that strategy will prove to be extremely profitable (even more so than it already is) for the Technology Brothers in the long run.

Go listen and follow them. Not a paid endorsement…unless the TBs wanna throw some capital our way. Cheers, gentlemen 🍾

Bonus: Q3 2024 Startup Benchmarking Report: AI Companies Are Breaking Out

From Standard Metrics

Our friends at Standard Metrics shared over their Q3 2024 Benchmarking report. The quick summary is: top AI companies are growing 2x faster than peers, early-stage startups are prioritizing lean growth with reduced headcounts, and later-stage firms are balancing headcount rebounds with revenue efficiency. Despite shrinking cash balances, startups have maintained consistent runway levels by adjusting burn rates based on market conditions. Growth & resiliency, baby. Love to see it. If you’re bored this weekend, flip through the report — some interesting charts and insights in there.

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Have a great weekend and a Merry Christmas, y’all!

If you miss getting Not Boring essays over the next couple of weeks, check out yesterday’s essay and go down its many rabbit holes.

Thanks to Baseten for sponsoring! We’ll be back in your inbox next Friday!

Thanks for reading,

Dan + Packy