Thank you for this essay. One remark: I think the electric stack is only possible with a modern, robust and intelligent electricity grid. China does not only invest in all underlying technologies but also in the grid itself, driving innovations like DC high voltage transmission lines.
Investments are needed in two different directions: 1. The basic infrastructure (transformers, transmission lines, substations, batteries, and of course generation) and 2. Adding "intelligence" to the grid, in order to use the basic infrastructure more efficiently and to make it more resilient. Some examples: adding synthetic inertia to solar inverters or making them black-start capable / better controlling how decentralised batteries feed energy in the grid...
Incentives could be a big driver of innovation there (e.g., flexible rates).
Wow. This is so well researched; admittedly I have to still sit and parse through this carefully, but genuinely looking forward to this. Especially excited with the US-China comparison.
America's energy grid is the bottleneck for data centers and AI, suppressing clean energy is not a great idea. The Trump Administration is certainly doing China a lot of favors when it comes to the AI arms race of the 2030s.
Not sure I see that quite the same way. Yes, wind is taking a big hit under this administration, but is that really such a big deal? “No longer subsidizing” is not quite the same as suppression though, say in the case of solar and EVs. And stopping the suppression of nuclear seems like a good thing to me.
I think we need to see as many forms of energy contributing to net energy wealth as possible, preferably the cleaner the better. Given China’s energy policies, which seem less concerned with cleanliness, is kicking wind to the curb really such a big deal, if we are going full throttle elsewhere?
There have been recent executive orders to not allow wind or solar permits on federal lands.
Besides this, a large impediment was the regulatory uncertainty around subsidies as it takes the market 1-2 years to digest these changes and re-price.
I feel that the latter is fine, but the former seems a bit political.
I suspect you are correct, that the former is indeed political. Though no fan of Trump, I am not unhappy more of these fugly things won’t be built on federal lands.
The level of detail, not to mention the research that was obviously required, is itself commendable. But the entire premise is fascinating. I continued reading even when it began to feel like I was drowning in the details. Because they matter. I wish I had the attention span to even attempt such a project. But it’s also frightening. You should somehow produce a condensed version and send it directly to…well, I wish I knew. I’m not sure anyone in the current administration could properly digest it. Or would even understand why that matters. That’s the frightening part. Because if someone doesn’t start to get it, this and other important things about what is currently going wrong in this country, we’re all sunk. We’re already sinking and none of us has the proper life preservers for this situation.
Fantastic piece. 👏👏👏 I’ve phrased the conclusion this way: A country does not rise to the level of its innovation. It falls to the level of its industrial commons.
This feels like a Not Boring discography; after five sittings I finally conquered this beast of an essay (small book) and learnt how little I knew along the way. Awesome stuff Packy and Sam.
I thought it was worth mentioning the long-term impact of this work. Now embedded into my own designs and strategic worldview https://substack.com/home/post/p-180213804
Every single time I read "Not Boring" I learn more than any other substack or email or even sometimes research papers... well done... again
I was feeling pretty good this morning. About something. I forget what. And then I read this.
This is literally me almost every day now.
😀
Thank you for this essay. One remark: I think the electric stack is only possible with a modern, robust and intelligent electricity grid. China does not only invest in all underlying technologies but also in the grid itself, driving innovations like DC high voltage transmission lines.
Investments are needed in two different directions: 1. The basic infrastructure (transformers, transmission lines, substations, batteries, and of course generation) and 2. Adding "intelligence" to the grid, in order to use the basic infrastructure more efficiently and to make it more resilient. Some examples: adding synthetic inertia to solar inverters or making them black-start capable / better controlling how decentralised batteries feed energy in the grid...
Incentives could be a big driver of innovation there (e.g., flexible rates).
Wow, that was amazing. You tied it all together very well! Thank you for your time and effort!!
Thank you for reading it!
Epic dive.
This is fantastic. Thank you for the effort and insight!
Wow. This is so well researched; admittedly I have to still sit and parse through this carefully, but genuinely looking forward to this. Especially excited with the US-China comparison.
America's energy grid is the bottleneck for data centers and AI, suppressing clean energy is not a great idea. The Trump Administration is certainly doing China a lot of favors when it comes to the AI arms race of the 2030s.
Not sure I see that quite the same way. Yes, wind is taking a big hit under this administration, but is that really such a big deal? “No longer subsidizing” is not quite the same as suppression though, say in the case of solar and EVs. And stopping the suppression of nuclear seems like a good thing to me.
I think we need to see as many forms of energy contributing to net energy wealth as possible, preferably the cleaner the better. Given China’s energy policies, which seem less concerned with cleanliness, is kicking wind to the curb really such a big deal, if we are going full throttle elsewhere?
There have been recent executive orders to not allow wind or solar permits on federal lands.
Besides this, a large impediment was the regulatory uncertainty around subsidies as it takes the market 1-2 years to digest these changes and re-price.
I feel that the latter is fine, but the former seems a bit political.
I suspect you are correct, that the former is indeed political. Though no fan of Trump, I am not unhappy more of these fugly things won’t be built on federal lands.
It's criminal this wasn't broken up into multiple posts or parts.
The level of detail, not to mention the research that was obviously required, is itself commendable. But the entire premise is fascinating. I continued reading even when it began to feel like I was drowning in the details. Because they matter. I wish I had the attention span to even attempt such a project. But it’s also frightening. You should somehow produce a condensed version and send it directly to…well, I wish I knew. I’m not sure anyone in the current administration could properly digest it. Or would even understand why that matters. That’s the frightening part. Because if someone doesn’t start to get it, this and other important things about what is currently going wrong in this country, we’re all sunk. We’re already sinking and none of us has the proper life preservers for this situation.
I really appreciate you reading it, Barbara! Good idea on trying to condense it and spread it further.
Every day is a learning experience. Today was a great day!
Fantastic piece. 👏👏👏 I’ve phrased the conclusion this way: A country does not rise to the level of its innovation. It falls to the level of its industrial commons.
Holy smokes. This is was a doozy. Thank you for intro'ing me to the world of Sam... he's got a new subscriber.
Brilliant. I am left speechless
Thanks Malhar! Means a lot coming from you man
This feels like a Not Boring discography; after five sittings I finally conquered this beast of an essay (small book) and learnt how little I knew along the way. Awesome stuff Packy and Sam.
Appreciate it, Tyler. Happy new year!
I thought it was worth mentioning the long-term impact of this work. Now embedded into my own designs and strategic worldview https://substack.com/home/post/p-180213804
Awesome!